Yinka Kolawole in Osogbo
A former Chief Press Secretary to the immediate-past Governor of Osun State, Gboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has questioned the feasibility of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 normal election, warning that the political technique surrounding the goal might undermine the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Omipidan additionally cautioned Tinubu and the APC nationwide management towards political preparations that might alienate loyal celebration members, arguing that resentment inside the celebration might weaken grassroots mobilisation forward of the presidential election.
In an opinion article, he maintained that Osun State’s historic voting patterns didn’t assist the projection of 1.5 million presidential votes, urging the president and the celebration management to undertake a technique that displays the state’s electoral historical past, political peculiarities, and the pursuits of its individuals.
He additionally expressed concern over the political implications of Governor Ademola Adeleke’s reported emergence as Osun State coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election marketing campaign, warning that the association might generate discontent amongst APC members if their established political buildings weren’t adequately thought-about.
“In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything,” Omipidan wrote, arguing {that a} technique pushed by the ambitions of some people might fail if it didn’t accommodate the pursuits of the broader celebration membership.
Omipidan stated he first heard concerning the proposed 1.5 million-vote goal lower than 24 hours after the APC misplaced the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
He added that the next repetition of the goal by the celebration’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, had heightened his considerations concerning the political calculations behind the proposal.
The APC misplaced the governorship election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, the proposed goal appeared inconsistent with Osun’s historic presidential election outcomes, because the state had by no means recorded as much as a million votes for a presidential candidate in earlier elections.
Citing the 2011 presidential election, he stated the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) candidate polled 299,711 votes in Osun State, whereas the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) secured 188,409 votes, with registered voters standing at 1,342,289.
In 2015, he stated the APC received the state with 383,603 votes towards the PDP’s 249,929, whereas the variety of registered voters was 1,407,107.
For the 2019 presidential election, Omipidan cited 347,634 votes for the APC and 337,377 for the PDP.
In the 2023 presidential election, he stated the APC polled 342,941 votes in Osun, whereas the PDP secured 353,860.
He argued that the figures demonstrated the problem of attaining the proposed 1.5 million votes, notably with out a substantial enhance in voter participation.
“Historically, Osun State has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he stated.
Omipidan acknowledged that voter turnout in presidential elections might differ from that recorded throughout governorship elections however maintained that the excellence ought to inform the celebration’s electoral calculations.
He urged the APC management to ascertain lifelike targets primarily based on the state’s voting patterns and develop a mobilisation technique able to attracting voters throughout Osun State.
Omipidan expressed concern over the political preparations being developed in Osun State to safe Tinubu’s re-election.
He particularly questioned the implications of Adeleke’s reported appointment because the president’s marketing campaign coordinator in the state, arguing that the APC should make sure the association didn’t undermine its present buildings.
While acknowledging the governor’s position in the rising marketing campaign association, Omipidan maintained that the APC must be allowed to strengthen its organisational equipment and mobilise its members in assist of Tinubu.
He warned that celebration members who felt sidelined might turn into much less dedicated to the marketing campaign, doubtlessly weakening the grassroots mobilisation required to realize the specified electoral final result.
According to him, the presidency and the APC nationwide management should take note of the considerations of celebration loyalists who’ve invested time and assets in constructing the celebration.
He additionally cautioned towards political preparations that might create pointless divisions between Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a distinguished APC determine in Osun State.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging each leaders to think about the implications of the rising political dynamics.
Omipidan urged that these selling the present association might inadvertently create rigidity between the 2 leaders if the pursuits of the established APC construction weren’t adequately protected.
He argued that the celebration’s nationwide management shouldn’t underestimate the sentiments of members who may understand the association as favouring a number of political actors on the expense of the broader celebration.
He maintained that the success of the president’s re-election marketing campaign would rely partly on the power of the APC to reconcile competing pursuits and be sure that its members remained actively concerned in the mobilisation course of.
Omipidan additional argued that political methods should replicate the peculiarities of the states in which they’re deployed, noting that an strategy that works in one a part of the nation may not essentially produce the identical outcomes elsewhere.
He maintained that Osun’s political tradition, voters’ expectations and prevailing pursuits must be thought-about in figuring out how the APC would pursue Tinubu’s re-election.
According to him, electoral mobilisation includes greater than bringing distinguished political figures collectively or asserting bold vote targets.
He argued that voters and celebration members are influenced by private pursuits, political loyalties, feelings and expectations, which may form their choices on the polls.
Omipidan additionally drew on the Rational Choice Theory related to economist and thinker Adam Smith to elucidate how private pursuits might affect voting choices.
He stated his earlier work making use of the idea to electoral behaviour confirmed that voters’ choices had been influenced not solely by candidates’ identities or celebration affiliations but in addition by their evaluation of non-public pursuits and potential advantages.
According to him, voters typically contemplate out there alternate options earlier than deciding which candidate or political platform they imagine will finest serve their pursuits.
He argued that the idea provided a helpful framework for understanding why political preparations that appeared advantageous to celebration leaders may not robotically translate into widespread assist amongst celebration members or voters.
He, due to this fact, referred to as for higher engagement with stakeholders in Osun State to deal with considerations surrounding the rising marketing campaign association earlier than they developed into deeper divisions.
According to him, the APC must strengthen its buildings in the state, handle the considerations of aggrieved members and be sure that its marketing campaign preparations encourage slightly than discourage grassroots participation.
