As we’re about to enter the third 12 months of the Spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETF being launched, it seems that BTC ETFs have a considerably stronger affect on BTC worth returns than company Bitcoin accumulation.
According to the newest evaluation by Ecoinometrics, an influx of 10,000 BTC into spot Bitcoin ETFs corresponds to an estimated 3.2% increase in month-to-month Bitcoin returns. In comparability, the identical quantity of Bitcoin bought by public firms contributes roughly 0.7% to month-to-month returns.
This suggests that ETF purchases have roughly 4.5 occasions the affect of company shopping for on Bitcoin’s worth efficiency.
ETFs vs. AUM: The actual winner
Adding extra to this evaluation, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart suggests that ETFs could surpass mutual funds in whole Assets Under Management (AUM) throughout the subsequent two to a few years.
He mentioned,
Their development is just accelerating. If we keep on the identical pattern we’ve been on for the reason that summer time it can occur in ~two years.
Confirming his prediction, Syeffart used a chart and highlighted that ETFs accounted for 40.21% of whole fund property as of September 2026. And given the current development tendencies, ETFs could attain the 50% mark as early as September 2028 if the three-month development fee continues.
However, different projections estimate this milestone between November 2028 and December 2029, relying on the interval thought of.
At the identical time, ETFs rolling 12-month development fee have additionally reached 3.74% in September 2026, above the historic common of two.78% for the reason that 2020 COVID market backside. This signifies that ETF adoption is increasing quicker than its long-term common.
Bitcoin ETF outflow streak continues
This comes as BTC ETFs are in their outflows streak. According to Farisde Investors knowledge, from 1st to fifth November 2026, Bitcoin ETFs noticed largely outflows. In truth, to this point in November, it has already recorded $869.82 million in outflows. The solely exception being on the 4th of November, when the BTC ETFs recorded a internet influx of $74.6 million.
All of this occurred as the worth of BTC was buying and selling at $76,102.46 after a drop of 52% in the previous 24 hours.
That mentioned, moreover Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum [ETH] ETFs additionally recorded $272.09 in outflows, and Binance [BNB] ETFs recorded $271.01K in outflows. Meanwhile, XRP ETFs had been funded by $529.51K in outflows, Solana [SOL] ETFs had $1.18M in outflows, and Hyperliquid [HYPE] ETFs additionally noticed $7.66 million in outflows.
In brief, the sample suggests risk-off sentiment throughout crypto in the beginning of November, and never simply in Bitcoin. So, given the present knowledge, it stays to be seen whether or not Seyffart’s predictions flip into actuality or not.
Final Summary
- ETF demand supplies a extra direct and constant supply of shopping for stress in the spot market.
- From 1st to fifth November 2026, Bitcoin ETFs noticed largely outflows with worth motion as dropping to $76K.
