Fewer attacks, more deaths recorded in seven northern states after 2023 election

Recorded assaults in opposition to civilians declined barely throughout seven northern Nigerian states in the six months after the 2023 presidential election, however estimated fatalities related to these assaults elevated, an evaluation of battle data by PREMIUM TIMES has discovered.

Data equipped by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) venture present that incidents categorized as violence in opposition to civilians fell from 401 in the six months earlier than the 2023 election to 383 afterwards, a decline of 4.5 per cent. Estimated fatalities, nonetheless, rose from 549 to 759, a rise of 38.3 per cent.

Most of the online enhance in estimated fatalities was concentrated in Benue, the place the determine rose from 111 earlier than the election to 315 afterwards. The state’s enhance of 204 accounted for nearly all the online rise of 210 throughout the seven states.

The evaluation lined Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger and Benue. It additionally examined comparable durations across the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections and adjustments in recorded violence exterior election years.

The findings describe violence recorded throughout chosen durations. They don’t set up that the elections brought about the assaults or that the incidents had been linked to electoral exercise.

Different patterns throughout seven states

The decline in recorded incidents after the 2023 election was not uniform. Katsina recorded 93 incidents earlier than polling day and 74 afterwards. Zamfara declined from 100 to 86, Kaduna from 72 to 56, and Kebbi from 12 to 6.

Other states moved in the wrong way. Sokoto rose from 38 incidents earlier than the election to 58 afterwards, whereas Benue elevated from 45 to 61. Niger remained virtually unchanged, with 41 incidents earlier than polling day and 42 afterwards.

Estimated fatalities didn’t observe the identical sample as incident counts. In Zamfara, they elevated from 136 to 154 regardless of a decline in recorded incidents. Sokoto recorded a rise from 45 to 98, whereas Benue’s estimated fatalities rose from 111 to 315. A decline in the variety of recorded assaults doesn’t essentially imply fewer folks had been killed.

ACLED’s fatality figures are estimates derived from reported incidents. They shouldn’t be handled as independently verified dying counts.

What earlier elections present

PREMIUM TIMES additionally examined comparable durations across the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections.

In the six months earlier than the 23 February 2019 election, ACLED recorded 83 incidents of violence in opposition to civilians throughout the seven states. The quantity elevated to 147 in the equal interval afterwards — an increase of 77.1 per cent.

The 2015 comparability confirmed a rise from 29 to 40 incidents.

Although recorded incidents declined barely after the 2023 election, their quantity remained considerably larger than throughout the corresponding durations across the earlier votes. Across the mixed pre- and post-election home windows, ACLED recorded 69 incidents across the 2015 election, 230 round 2019, and 784 round 2023.

These comparisons describe adjustments in recorded occasions. They don’t set up that presidential elections brought about the will increase or declines. Changes in the supply and sources of battle reporting over time should even be thought of when decoding variations between election years.

Katsina and Zamfara after 2019

Katsina recorded one of many sharpest will increase in the 2019 comparability.

ACLED logged 10 incidents of violence in opposition to civilians in the six months earlier than the election and 37 afterwards. Estimated fatalities related to these incidents rose from 16 to 161.

The post-election incidents had been concentrated in three native authorities areas: Kankara (10), Batsari (9) and Danmusa (6). Together they accounted for 25 of the state’s 37 recorded incidents. In neighbouring Zamfara, incidents elevated from 21 to 31, whereas estimated fatalities rose from 148 to 360. Shinkafi and Kaura Namoda accounted for eight and seven of the post-election incidents respectively.

Violence past election durations

The battle data additionally present substantial adjustments exterior presidential election years.

In Katsina, ACLED recorded 37 incidents of violence in opposition to civilians between 24 February and 24 August 2019. The equal 182-day interval in 2020 recorded 71 incidents, whereas the interval from 24 February to 23 August 2024 recorded 98.

Zamfara recorded 31 incidents throughout the 2019 interval and 22 in the equal interval in 2020. The 2024 comparability recorded 130 incidents.

Annual data additionally present considerably larger incident counts in later years. Across the seven states, ACLED recorded 279 incidents categorized as violence in opposition to civilians in 2019, in contrast with 750 in 2023 and 1,192 in 2024.

These figures present that adjustments in recorded violence weren’t confined to election durations. However, the quantity and composition of reporting sources in the dataset additionally modified over time. Differences in recorded incidents can not mechanically be learn as equal adjustments in the underlying stage of violence.

While the ACLED data present how violence modified across the elections, studies from INEC and election observers doc particular methods insecurity affected voting preparations in Niger and Katsina states throughout the 2023 presidential election.

How insecurity disrupted voting

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reported difficulties deploying personnel and supplies to Alawa in Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State. INEC Chairman Mahmood Yakubu attributed the delay to safety issues, in response to an election-day report by PUNCH.

In Katsina, the fee reported the seizure of six Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) gadgets by thugs in Safana Local Government Area. Three gadgets had been recovered and replacements deployed, Mr Yakubu mentioned, in response to Channels Television.

Election observer Yiaga Africa reported that polling models had been relocated in elements of Shiroro, Mariga, Magama and Rafi native authorities areas of Niger State following assaults. Its election-day situational assertion raised issues in regards to the impact on voters’ entry to polling areas.

Voting preparations for displaced residents

INEC’s Report of the 2023 General Election states that particular voting preparations lined 155,101 registered voters throughout 323 polling models and 42 registration areas in 5 native authorities areas of Niger State affected by banditry and flooding. The fee mentioned voting befell at established camps for internally displaced individuals beneath safety safety.

Earlier public statements gave completely different figures. In March 2022, officers recognized 270 affected polling models throughout Mariga, Shiroro, Rafi and Munya. A February 2023 briefing referred to 247 or 248 models, whereas the ultimate report recorded 323.

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The variations might replicate adjustments in displacement, protection or administrative definitions. They can’t be in contrast instantly with out the underlying schedules.

The European Union Election Observation Mission, in its report on Nigeria’s 2023 basic elections, raised wider issues in regards to the data accessible to displaced voters on registration, voter playing cards, polling areas and the implementation of particular voting preparations.

INEC’s report data the dimensions of the preparations however doesn’t set up how lots of the 155,101 registered voters had been accredited or solid ballots. Determining participation would require the ultimate polling-unit schedule, accreditation data and election outcomes.

How we analysed the information

PREMIUM TIMES examined 17,114 ACLED conflict-event data masking Benue, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto and Zamfara. Of these, 9,354 had been categorized as violence in opposition to civilians.

The incident-level dataset was equipped instantly by ACLED on 14 October 2026 following a request submitted on 13 October. The evaluation used the occasion date, state, native authorities space, occasion classification and estimated fatality fields. Event identifiers had been checked for duplication.

For every presidential election, incidents recorded throughout the 182 days earlier than polling day had been in contrast with these recorded throughout the 182 days afterwards. Election days had been excluded.

The durations examined had been:

2015: 27 September 2014 to 27 March 2015 and 29 March to 26 September 2015.

2019: 25 August 2018 to 22 February 2019 and 24 February to 24 August 2019.

2023: 27 August 2022 to 24 February 2023 and 26 February to 26 August 2023.

Comparable 182-day durations exterior presidential election years had been additionally examined. For the 2019 comparability, the interval ran from 24 February to 24 August. In the leap years 2020 and 2024, the equal durations ended on 23 August to keep up the identical variety of days.

The evaluation describes adjustments in recorded incidents and related estimated fatalities. It doesn’t set up that elections brought about these adjustments or that the assaults had been election-related.

ACLED’s data rely partly on the supply and high quality of battle reporting. Its fatality figures are estimates compiled from reported occasions and shouldn’t be handled as independently verified dying counts.

Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), incident-level dataset equipped to PREMIUM TIMES in October 2026.