Fitch Ratings has revised the outlooks of nine Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies to Positive from Stable, citing enhancements in Nigeria’s financial coverage framework, international alternate reserves and working surroundings.
The world score company affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of the affected establishments at ‘B’, indicating that the outlook modifications don’t represent an improve of their current credit score scores.
The affected establishments are Access Bank Plc, Zenith Bank Plc, First HoldCo Plc (FHC), First Bank of Nigeria Ltd (FBN), United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA), Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), Guaranty Trust Bank Limited (GTB), Fidelity Bank Plc, First City Monument Bank Limited (FCMB), Wema Bank Plc and Bank of Industry Limited (BOI).
According to Fitch, the revisions comply with its choice on October 9, 2026, to revise the outlook on Nigeria’s ‘B’ Long-Term IDRs to Positive, reflecting ongoing reforms and elevated confidence that coverage momentum will likely be sustained regardless of upcoming elections.
Sovereign outlook helps banks’ score revisions
Fitch stated the revised outlooks for Access Bank, Zenith Bank, FHC, FBN, UBA, GTCO, GTB, Fidelity Bank, FCMB and Wema Bank replicate its evaluation that Nigeria’s sovereign credit score profile and working surroundings might turn out to be much less of a constraint on the banks’ standalone creditworthiness.
The company stated the outlook revisions for FHC and FBN have been additionally supported by the establishments having restored compliance with their whole capital adequacy ratio necessities.
For Bank of Industry, Fitch stated the Positive Outlook mirrored the chance of improved authorities capability to supply help to the coverage bank.
The score company added that the National Ratings of all of the affected establishments and the Government Support Ratings of the eight industrial banks and two bank holding companies remained unchanged.
Stronger reserves, naira appreciation help outlook
Fitch stated Nigeria’s working surroundings was bettering, noting that the naira appreciated by roughly 7% between January and September 2026, whereas the Central Bank of Nigeria continued to construct gross worldwide reserves.
The company additionally pointed to moderating inflation and the potential for additional financial coverage easing as components supporting the financial outlook.
- “Inflation increased at the onset of the Iran conflict but reduced slightly to 15.4% in August (June: 15.9%) and we expect it to reduce further, supporting a continued easing of monetary policy. We forecast real GDP growth of 4.3% in 2026 (2025: 4%),” Fitch stated.
- The company famous that the withdrawal of longstanding regulatory forbearance, significantly across the classification of downside loans, resulted in larger impaired-loan ratios on the finish of 2025.
However, vital capital raisings to satisfy new paid-in capital necessities efficient from the top of the primary quarter of 2026 had helped cushion the influence and supplied room for additional lending and enterprise progress.
Fitch additionally stated the banking sector had demonstrated resilience regardless of demanding regulatory necessities, significantly the 45% money reserve ratio relevant to industrial banks.
Banks stay uncovered to sovereign credit score dangers
Despite the improved outlooks, Fitch stated the creditworthiness of the affected industrial banks remained carefully linked to Nigeria’s sovereign credit score profile as a result of of their substantial publicity to authorities securities and money reserves held with the CBN.
According to the company, web loans accounted for between 18% and 41% of the banks’ whole belongings on the finish of 2025, whereas CBN money reserves and Nigerian sovereign fixed-income securities represented between 23% and 45% of whole belongings.
- The company stated these exposures influenced the banks’ Viability Ratings (VRs), which assess their standalone creditworthiness.
- Fitch added that the VRs of Zenith Bank, GTCO and GTB have been one notch under their implied VRs as a result of of constraints related to Nigeria’s working surroundings and sovereign score.
- Access Bank’s VR was additionally one notch under its implied stage as a result of of capitalisation and leverage concerns.
For FHC and GTCO, Fitch stated their holding-company scores have been aligned with their respective group VRs as a result of of the absence of common-equity double leverage and the excessive fungibility of capital and liquidity inside their teams.
FBN restores capital adequacy compliance
Fitch stated First Bank of Nigeria breached its minimal bank-solo capital adequacy ratio requirement of 15% on the finish of 2025 following a pointy enhance in impaired loans.
However, the bank restored compliance, with its capital adequacy ratio rising to 16.7% by the top of the primary half of 2026, supported by sturdy profitability and a small core capital elevating.
Access Bank, in the meantime, remained above its minimal capital requirement however confronted regulatory considerations over its investments in international subsidiaries.
- “Access Bank has breached a regulatory limit on its investments in foreign subsidiaries of 10% of shareholders’ funds, and its bank-solo CAR (end-1Q26: 17.4%) has only a moderate buffer over its 15% minimum regulatory requirement,” Fitch stated.
The company expects the bank to finish measures, together with recalling capital from and promoting some small shareholdings in sure subsidiaries, to revive compliance with the funding restrict and enhance its bank-solo capital adequacy ratio by the top of the primary quarter of 2027.
BOI outlook displays potential authorities help
Unlike the industrial banks, Fitch stated Bank of Industry’s Long-Term IDR was pushed by its Government Support Rating, which displays the probability of help from the Nigerian authorities.
The company stated the federal government had a excessive propensity to help BOI, given its 99.9% state possession, established coverage position and vital share of government-guaranteed funding.
However, Fitch famous that the federal government’s potential to supply help remained constrained by Nigeria’s personal ‘B’ Long-Term IDR.
What might change the scores?
Fitch warned {that a} downgrade of Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs might set off downgrades of the Long-Term IDRs and Viability Ratings of the affected industrial banks and holding companies.
- Even with no sovereign downgrade, scores might come underneath strain if downside loans elevated materially, capital buffers weakened or foreign-currency liquidity tightened severely.
- For FHC and GTCO, Fitch stated sustained common-equity double leverage above 120% might result in their Long-Term IDRs and Viability Ratings being notched off their respective group VRs.
- BOI’s scores may be downgraded if the federal government’s willingness to help the establishment weakened, together with by means of a change in its coverage position or a cloth discount in authorities possession.
- Fitch stated upgrades for Access Bank, Zenith Bank, FHC, FBN, UBA, GTCO and GTB would require an improve of Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs alongside secure monetary profiles.
- For Fidelity Bank and FCMB, an improve would additionally require an enchancment in Fitch’s evaluation of Nigeria’s working surroundings. Wema Bank would want to satisfy these circumstances and strengthen its enterprise profile.
An improve of BOI’s Long-Term IDR and Government Support Rating would require an improve of Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs.
Nigeria’s ‘B’ score
The Outlook revisions comply with an identical motion on Nigeria’s ‘B’ Long-Term IDRs on 9 October 2026.
The report famous that the improved outlook displays stronger international alternate reserves, ongoing financial reforms and moderating inflation, though fiscal pressures and excessive debt-servicing prices stay considerations.
Fitch stated Nigeria’s improved macroeconomic coverage framework and stronger exterior monetary place have elevated its resilience to financial shocks.
