MTN Nigeria earned N1.86 trillion from data between April and September 2026, about two and a half times the N739.84 billion generated by Airtel’s Nigerian mobile-services enterprise.
But Airtel Nigeria grew faster from a smaller base. Its data income rose 33.8% 12 months on 12 months in fixed forex, in contrast with about 28.3% progress for MTN Nigeria in naira, primarily based on a Nairametrics evaluation of the businesses’ newest monetary filings on the Nigerian Exchange.
MTN Nigeria’s monetary 12 months runs from January to December, whereas Airtel Africa’s runs from April to March.
Airtel’s half-year outcomes already cowl April to September, so, we subtracted MTN’s first-quarter outcomes from its nine-month figures to match Airtel’s April–September interval.
Airtel Africa studies its ends in US {dollars} and operates throughout a number of markets. For the working comparability, we transformed Airtel Nigeria’s income on the disclosed weighted common fee of N1,360 per greenback for its Nigerian operations through the interval.
The evaluation additional exhibits that data accounted for 59.6% of MTN Nigeria’s N3.12 trillion in income between April and September 2026.
At Airtel Nigeria, data made up 54% of N1.37 trillion in mobile-services income. Across all its markets, Airtel Africa reported income of $3.823 billion for a similar interval, equal to about N5.20 trillion at N1,360 per greenback.
MTN additionally earned extra per subscriber throughout companies resembling voice and data. Its common month-to-month income per person (ARPU) was N5,150 from January to September, in contrast with about N3,808 for Airtel Nigeria from April to September.
Buying Airtel Africa shares provides buyers a stake in its companies throughout Africa, together with Nigeria, so, we used the group’s revenue for the inventory comparability.
At October 30 costs, buyers paid about N23 for each N1 of revenue Airtel Africa earned per share within the 12 months to September, in contrast with about N12 for MTN Nigeria.
The hole was a lot smaller when the comparability included debt and lease obligations and checked out earnings from working the companies.
Investors subsequently have two issues to weigh. How a lot is MTN’s lead in Nigeria value, and how briskly does Airtel Africa must develop to justify the upper worth buyers pay for its earnings?
MTN’s data income lead is wider than its subscriber lead
MTN Nigeria ended September with 57.2 million energetic data customers, about 74% greater than Airtel Nigeria’s 32.9 million.
Yet it earned about 151% extra from data over the six months. Having extra prospects explains a part of the lead.
How a lot data prospects use, the bundles they purchase, and the costs they pay also can have an effect on what every community earns.
Customers are utilizing extra data on each networks.
- MTN’s energetic data customers consumed a median of 15.3 GB a month within the 9 months to September, up 16.2% 12 months on 12 months.
- Airtel Nigeria’s smartphone prospects used 16.7 GB a month within the six months to September, up from 12.7 GB.
- The corporations measure totally different teams over totally different intervals, so the figures present how utilization is altering on every community.
- The dimension of MTN’s enterprise makes Airtel’s catch-up more durable. Between April and September, MTN added about N409 billion in data gross sales 12 months on 12 months, accounting for roughly 93% of its whole income progress.
Airtel can develop faster in proportion phrases whereas the hole in Naira nonetheless widens. To shut it, Airtel finally has so as to add extra data income than MTN provides.
Its Nigerian mobile-services enterprise greater than doubled capital spending to $177 million through the interval. How a lot further income that funding brings in will assist decide whether or not Airtel can shut the hole.
What would justify Airtel’s larger worth?
An investor shopping for Airtel Africa on the finish of October was coming in after a 177.53% rally to N6,300.
- MTN Nigeria had additionally risen sharply, gaining 66.34% to shut at N850. The rallies rewarded buyers who purchased earlier.
- For somebody placing in recent cash, the query is how a lot revenue and money every firm can ship from right here. Start with what the businesses earned over the previous 12 months.
- At October-end costs, buyers paid about N23 for each N1 of Airtel Africa’s revenue per share, in contrast with about N12 for MTN.
But consider shopping for the entire enterprise and taking over its debt and leases as properly.
- On that foundation, Airtel was valued at about 6.5 times its underlying EBITDA, a measure of earnings earlier than prices resembling curiosity, tax and depreciation.
- MTN was valued at about 5.9 times EBITDA. Airtel’s premium shrinks to roughly 11%.
The steadiness sheets inform one other a part of the story.
- Investors paid N5.36 for each N1 of fairness Airtel recorded on its books, in opposition to N21.15 for MTN.
Past losses diminished MTN’s ebook fairness, so its share worth is being measured in opposition to a smaller base. That helps clarify how MTN can look costly on ebook worth whereas costing much less for every naira of latest revenue.
Outlook
On the income already earned, MTN Nigeria was cheaper at October-end costs. It additionally provided a better interim dividend yield. MTN’s N26 per share was equal to three.06% of its N850 closing worth on October 30.
Airtel Africa’s interim dividend of US3.1 cents, equal to N41.77 at its introduced trade fee, represented 0.66% of its N6,300 closing worth.
These figures examine interim payouts alone.
For MTN, the query in 2027 is whether or not its bigger data enterprise can maintain producing sufficient money to help dividends after community spending and lease funds.
- “Our priorities are clear: sustain growth, protect margins, scale home broadband and rebuild fintech momentum, while creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders,” MTN Nigeria Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola stated within the firm’s nine-month outcomes.
Airtel Africa raised its interim dividend by 9.2% whereas stepping up spending on its community. Chief Executive Officer Sunil Taldar stated the group had
- “Increased the pace of network investment to expand capacity and enhance service quality.”
At October-end costs, Airtel buyers obtained much less interim dividend revenue for every naira invested.
The larger worth they pay for its earnings shall be simpler to justify if community funding and progress throughout its markets carry revenue per share and depart room for bigger payouts.
