• Considers campaigning throughout all 36 states in new technique as prepare strikes to Dutse, Ibadan
•Ex-Vice President’s Sokoto, Kebbi rallies put presidency on alert
Olawale Olaleye
Some occasions of the previous few days may need compelled President Bola Tinubu to considerably revise his preliminary plan to personally marketing campaign in solely 12 states, as political developments throughout northern Nigeria, notably the rising visibility of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar threatens to complicate the re-election calculations of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
With practically 63 per cent of Tinubu’s 2023 presidential votes coming from the 19 northern states, the battle to retain that assist has change into central to his second time period ambition.
The altering political ambiance in northern Nigeria, has pressured Tinubu to rethink the scope of his private marketing campaign appearances forward of the January 16, 2027 presidential election, with the potential for extending his tour to all 36 states of the federation as a substitute of the preliminary 12 states introduced within the launched.
Apart from the problem posed by Atiku, Mr. Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) and Seyi Makinde of the Allied People’s Movement (APM), the adjustment to the ruling get together’s technique may be pressured by the rising displeasure over financial hardship and insecurity in sections of the north.
The chance of an expanded presidential tour acquired larger significance following the spectacular public reception accorded Atiku, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, throughout the formal graduation of his marketing campaign in Sokoto on November 4.
However, Tinubu’s go to to Jigawa State as we speak for an APC presidential marketing campaign rally and the inauguration of 4 growth tasks in addition to Ibadan within the coming days buttresses the brand new considering in his camp.
The ADC had publicly interpreted the big gathering as proof of rising discontent with the Tinubu administration and growing acceptance of Atiku’s promise to make life extra inexpensive.
While the scale of political rallies can’t be handled as conclusive proof of electoral energy, the event has bolstered the necessity for APC to reassess the political temperature in a area that performed a decisive function in Tinubu’s emergence as president in 2023.
It has additionally raised questions of whether or not the president can afford to delegate a lot of his northern marketing campaign to governors, ministers, and different get together leaders, when his principal opponent is personally partaking communities the place financial hardship and insecurity have change into delicate political points.
The president’s current marketing campaign exercise has already demonstrated that the unique schedule just isn’t immutable. On November 6, he attended a political rally in Akwa Ibom State, which was exterior the 12 states earmarked for his private appearances, earlier than continuing to Rivers on November 7.
Although there was no formal announcement increasing his North-west itinerary, the Akwa Ibom rally attendance means that further presidential appearances stay a sensible chance.
The larger consideration, nevertheless, just isn’t merely the variety of states Tinubu visits, however what he intends to obtain in these states.
The 62 Per Cent That Made Tinubu President
The clearest rationalization, maybe, for the rising marketing campaign dilemma lies within the electoral arithmetic of 2023.
According to the presidential election outcomes declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Tinubu secured 8,794,726 votes nationwide, defeating Atiku, who acquired 6,984,520 votes, and Peter Obi, who obtained 6,101,533 votes.
Rabiu Kwankwaso, who contested on the platform of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), acquired 1,496,687 votes.
A better examination of the outcomes reveals that Tinubu obtained roughly 5,507,784 votes from the 19 northern states alone.
That represents 62.6 per cent of his whole nationwide tally, which means that just about two out of each three votes credited to Tinubu got here from the north. This is prime.
It establishes that Tinubu’s victory was considerably depending on northern voters, however his standing as South-west political chief and the sturdy assist he loved in his conventional regional base.
Indeed, the 2023 figures present that his benefit over Atiku throughout the 19 northern states was roughly 348,505 votes, a relatively slim margin given the scale of the area.
The North-west contributed roughly 2.65 million votes to Tinubu’s whole, whereas the North-central delivered about 1.67 million, and the North-east did roughly 1.19 million.
The implication is unmistakable: the north was not merely an extra supply of assist, it constituted the inspiration upon which Tinubu’s nationwide electoral coalition rested.
Losing a considerable proportion of that assist in 2027 may place appreciable stress on his re-election probabilities, even when he improves his efficiency elsewhere.
That is especially essential as a result of the 2027 contest is unfolding below circumstances markedly completely different from these of 2023.
Tinubu is now not an opposition-style candidate promising a departure from an current authorities. He is the incumbent president defending his personal financial insurance policies, safety file, and administrative choices.
The electoral calculation this time is much less about what he guarantees to do and extra about how Nigerians choose what his administration has already completed.
Why the North-west Has Become Critical Battlefield
Of the three northern geopolitical zones, the North-west presents, maybe, essentially the most consequential political problem.
With seven states — Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara — it accommodates a few of the nation’s largest voting populations and has traditionally performed a serious function in figuring out presidential outcomes.
In 2023, Tinubu obtained 2,652,235 votes from the area, in contrast with Atiku’s 2,329,540. This gave Tinubu a zonal benefit of simply 322,695 votes. The end result, nevertheless, hid a way more difficult electoral sample.
Atiku really received 4 of the seven states: Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto. Tinubu received Jigawa and Zamfara, whereas Kwankwaso defeated each males in Kano.
Consequently, though Tinubu secured the best combination variety of votes within the North-west, he didn’t dominate the area when it comes to the variety of states received.
That distinction is especially essential because the 2027 marketing campaign gathers momentum.
In Kaduna, Atiku defeated Tinubu by 554,360 votes to 399,293. In Katsina, the previous vp secured 489,045 votes towards Tinubu’s 482,283, successful by solely 6,762 votes.
In Kebbi, Atiku polled 285,175 votes towards Tinubu’s 248,088, whereas Sokoto produced one of many closest contests, with Atiku receiving 288,679 votes towards Tinubu’s 285,444. The end result in Sokoto was determined by solely 3,235 votes.
Tinubu’s victories had been recorded in Jigawa, the place he obtained 421,390 votes towards Atiku’s 386,587, and Zamfara, the place he polled 298,396 towards Atiku’s 193,978.
In Kano, Kwankwaso emerged because the dominant political pressure with 997,279 votes, whereas Tinubu secured 517,341 and Atiku completed with 131,716. These figures exhibit simply how susceptible the North-west may change into to comparatively modest adjustments in voter preferences.
A swing of fewer than 7,000 votes may have altered the result in Katsina in 2023, whereas roughly 3,300 further votes for Tinubu may have modified the end in Sokoto.
For Atiku, such slim margins supply alternative for consolidating current assist. But for Tinubu, they signify each the potential for recovering misplaced territory and the hazard of conceding additional floor.
Atiku’s Growing Visibility and the Sokoto Signal
Atiku’s determination to open his marketing campaign in Sokoto was politically important. Apart from being one of many states he received in 2023, Sokoto occupies an essential place within the North-west’s non secular, conventional and political hierarchy.
His November 4 marketing campaign attracted a big gathering of supporters, prompting ADC Presidential Campaign Council to describe the reception as an expression of dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration.
According to the opposition get together, Atiku’s motorcade spent a number of hours transferring via the town as residents lined main roads to welcome him.
The get together subsequently framed the occasion round its affordability message, presenting Atiku instead to the financial difficulties skilled below the present administration.
The significance of this growth lies much less within the crowd itself than within the political message accompanying it.
Atiku is making an attempt to shift the competition away from get together affiliations and elite endorsements in the direction of the on a regular basis experiences of extraordinary voters.
For many northern households, the central questions concern the costs of meals, transportation, agricultural inputs, electrical energy and different important items.
The opposition can also be searching for to exploit public frustration over insecurity, notably in communities affected by banditry, kidnapping and disruptions to farming actions. These issues aren’t imaginary.
Food and Agriculture Organisation reported in September that battle was severely disrupting agricultural actions in a number of Nigerian states, together with Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara.
Its evaluation additionally highlighted the persevering with impact of excessive meals costs and insecurity on livelihoods. This creates a doubtlessly receptive surroundings for opposition candidates promising a distinct financial and safety method.
Nevertheless, Atiku’s obvious momentum shouldn’t be overstated.
A big rally doesn’t essentially translate into an electoral majority, and no independently verified, complete opinion ballot establishes that he at present enjoys overwhelming assist throughout the North-west.
What will be established is that Atiku retains a considerable electoral base within the north, he’s actively searching for to broaden it, and he has discovered a marketing campaign message that connects with widespread issues about dwelling prices.
For Tinubu, that’s ample cause to take the problem severely.
Seven APC Governors, But Where Are the Voters?
The best political benefit accessible to Tinubu within the North-west is that each one seven governors are actually members of APC. This represents a serious departure from the political configuration of 2023.
The ruling get together controls the governments of Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara, giving it entry to an intensive community of get together constructions and influential political officeholders.
In January, Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, defected from NNPP to APC, altering the political configuration of a state the place Kwankwaso had exercised appreciable affect.
Zamfara Governor, Dauda Lawal, additionally moved into APC, strengthening the get together’s formal management of the zone.
At the presidential marketing campaign flag-off in Kaduna on October 24, the APC management offered get together flags to the seven North-west governors, underscoring the significance it attaches to consolidating its dominance within the area.
On paper Tinubu possesses an electoral benefit that Atiku can not simply replicate.
The governors can present organisational coordination, mobilise get together constructions, and have interaction political stakeholders throughout their respective states.
But there’s a distinction between controlling a authorities and commanding the preferences of its voters. The 2023 outcomes demonstrated that voters don’t at all times comply with the political preferences of incumbent governors.
That actuality has acquired larger significance in an election, the place public dissatisfaction might show extra influential than standard political loyalty.
The query is whether or not the seven governors can persuade voters, who’re dissatisfied with nationwide financial situations, to assist the continuation of the federal administration.
Tinubu’s doable determination to ultimately go to each North-west state personally might replicate a recognition that the political constructions of governors, nevertheless in depth, can not completely substitute for direct presidential engagement.
Kano: The Most Complicated Equation
Kano stays the North-west’s most intriguing electoral battlefield. In 2023, Kwankwaso’s 997,279 votes made the state his principal political stronghold and demonstrated the energy of his private political organisation.
Tinubu completed second with 517,341 votes, whereas Atiku secured 131,716. The scenario has since modified significantly.
Yusuf’s defection to APC in January has given the ruling get together management of the state authorities, however Kwankwaso stays an essential opposition determine.
Now operating as Obi’s vice presidential candidate on the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) ticket, Kwankwaso may complicate the competition between Tinubu and Atiku.
If he retains a considerable proportion of his 2023 assist, APC might discover it tough to obtain a decisive victory even with the governor’s backing.
On the opposite hand, if Yusuf succeeds in transferring a big a part of NNPP’s former political construction to APC, Tinubu may enhance significantly on his earlier efficiency.
Atiku faces his personal problem. Although he maintains longstanding political relationships in Kano, his 2023 tally was far under these of Kwankwaso and Tinubu.
His process just isn’t merely to profit from dissatisfaction with the federal authorities, however to persuade voters, who beforehand supported different candidates, to take into account him.
Kano may consequently change into a three-way contest by which the last word end result is dependent upon grassroots mobilisation, the sturdiness of Kwankwaso’s political community, and the power of APC to exploit its management of the state authorities.
Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi: The Margins That Matter
If Kano presents the biggest numerical problem, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi signify the states the place comparatively small shifts may have substantial political penalties.
Katsina is especially delicate due to its affiliation with former President Muhammadu Buhari and the historic affect of APC within the state.
Despite that political heritage, Atiku defeated Tinubu there in 2023, though by a slim margin. The president consequently has an affordable alternative to reverse the end result if his marketing campaign succeeds in consolidating the APC political organisation.
Yet, persevering with insecurity, rural poverty, and financial hardship imply that the ruling get together can not rely completely on conventional loyalties. Sokoto presents an analogous dilemma.
Atiku’s current marketing campaign reception, coming in a state he received by simply 3,235 votes in 2023, has given ADC a possibility to venture rising momentum.
Tinubu’s authentic marketing campaign itinerary already consists of Sokoto, however the rising political competitors may make additional engagement crucial.
Kebbi, the place Atiku received by 37,087 votes, is one other state by which APC may realistically search to reverse its 2023 defeat.
The mixed image means that these three states might change into essential to the North-qest contest, not essentially due to huge voting margins, however exactly as a result of their margins had been comparatively small.
A fastidiously organised marketing campaign may change the result in any of them.
Zamfara, Kaduna and Jigawa: Different Challenges, Same Stakes
Zamfara presents Tinubu with the problem of retaining a considerable victory whereas addressing the insecurity that has continued to have an effect on components of the state. His 2023 benefit over Atiku was 104,418 votes, giving APC a comparatively sturdy place.
However, the political surroundings has modified, and the presence of Governor Dauda Lawal inside APC introduces a brand new dimension to the get together’s inside relationships.
The ruling get together will want to reconcile its numerous political pursuits whereas demonstrating progress towards the violence that has disrupted rural communities.
In Kaduna, Tinubu confronts a extra substantial electoral deficit. Atiku’s benefit of 155,067 votes in 2023 was bolstered by the numerous assist Obi acquired, notably amongst sections of the voters involved about non secular illustration and safety.
Tinubu’s marketing campaign started in Kaduna on October 24, demonstrating that the state is already thought-about a precedence.
Governor Uba Sani’s political community and reconciliation initiatives might strengthen APC’s place, however the president will nonetheless want to persuade voters that situations have improved sufficiently to justify one other mandate.
Jigawa, in the meantime, affords a distinct calculation. Tinubu defeated Atiku there by 34,803 votes in 2023, giving APC a relatively slim benefit.
Governor Umar Namadi’s political organisation may assist consolidate that assist, however the state can’t be thought to be past the attain of the opposition.
Taken collectively, the three states illustrate why a uniform North-west marketing campaign technique could also be insufficient. Each has distinct political pursuits, safety challenges and electoral loyalties.
North-east and Danger of Wider Northern Rejection
Although the North-west has emerged as a selected concern, Tinubu’s problem extends to the North-east, the place Atiku loved a substantial benefit in 2023.
Across the six North-east states, Atiku secured 1,741,846 votes, in contrast with Tinubu’s 1,185,458. The former vice-president defeated Tinubu by roughly 556,388 votes within the zone.
Atiku received Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe, whereas Tinubu prevailed solely in Borno, Shettima’s political base.
For APC, the political realignments which have introduced further governors into its fold supply a possibility to cut back that deficit.
But the basic electoral problem stays. Atiku is from Adamawa and retains longstanding political relationships throughout the zone. His candidacy consequently poses a menace that can not be neutralised merely by controlling further state governments.
Tinubu’s authentic marketing campaign schedule recognises this actuality by together with Adamawa, Bauchi and Borno amongst his deliberate private appearances.
Nevertheless, a deterioration within the APC place within the North-west, mixed with continued Atiku energy within the North-east, may create a tough nationwide electoral equation for the ruling get together.
Can Tinubu Afford to Lose Northern Votes?
The numbers supply a helpful illustration. Tinubu defeated Atiku nationwide by 1,810,206 votes in 2023.
In the North-west alone, Tinubu acquired 2,652,235 votes. If simply 10 per cent of these North-west votes had been to swap instantly from Tinubu to Atiku in 2027, with each different voting sample unchanged, the 2 candidates’ nationwide margin would change by roughly 530,447 votes.
Such a shift could be ample to overturn Tinubu’s 2023 combination benefit over Atiku within the North-West. This is simply an arithmetical illustration, not an election forecast. Actual voting in 2027 will contain different candidates, adjustments in turnout and doubtlessly completely different alignments.
Nevertheless, the train demonstrates why APC can not dismiss even comparatively modest adjustments in northern voter preferences. The president doesn’t essentially want to repeat his precise 2023 efficiency in each state to win re-election.
But he should retain sufficient of the coalition that introduced him to energy whereas compensating for any losses with further assist elsewhere. That may show tough if dissatisfaction spreads concurrently throughout a number of northern states.
The downside is compounded by the truth that APC’s opponents aren’t competing for exactly the identical voters. Atiku’s ADC is searching for to consolidate a largely northern political base whereas increasing into different areas.
Obi’s NDC ticket with Kwankwaso may retain important assist within the Middle Belt and Kano, alongside its southern constituencies.
Other candidates may have an effect on the distribution of votes specifically states. The president should due to this fact handle a number of electoral threats directly slightly than focus completely on Atiku.
Economic Reforms Versus Everyday Realities
A central issue going through Tinubu is the hole between enhancements in some macroeconomic indicators and the dwelling situations skilled by extraordinary Nigerians.
The administration has defended its removing of gasoline subsidies, overseas change reforms, and different coverage adjustments as crucial measures to stabilise the financial system and restore long-term development.
The International Monetary Fund acknowledged in its June 2026 evaluation that the reforms had improved financial resilience and supported stronger macroeconomic outcomes.
However, IMF additionally warned that dwelling situations remained tough, estimating that poverty has reached 63 per cent below the nationwide poverty line.
The World Bank equally reported enhancements in financial stability whereas emphasising the persistence of widespread poverty and the necessity for development that interprets into higher employment and dwelling requirements.
For many citizens in northern Nigeria, the political relevance of those assessments is fast.
A farmer, who can not domesticate his land due to insecurity could also be much less persuaded by improved overseas reserves than by the prospect of returning safely to his farm.
A dealer going through greater transport prices might choose financial coverage by the influence on enterprise slightly than by enhancements in fiscal balances.
A family combating meals costs could also be unwilling to settle for that macroeconomic progress routinely represents improved welfare.
The APC marketing campaign should discover a means to clarify the advantages of its reforms with out dismissing the difficulties skilled by the voters.
Atiku, conversely, should exhibit that his different financial programme affords a reputable route to enhancing dwelling situations slightly than merely expressing dissatisfaction with current insurance policies.
This contest between financial arguments and lived expertise could also be extra influential than the variety of governors or political endorsements accessible to both candidate.
Why Tinubu’s Original 12-State Strategy May No Longer Be Sufficient
APC’s authentic marketing campaign timetable offered for Tinubu to personally attend rallies in Kaduna, Rivers, Plateau, Oyo, Borno, Enugu, Bauchi, Sokoto, Delta, Kano, Adamawa and Lagos.
The choice was clearly strategic. It included a number of states the place Tinubu misplaced in 2023, alongside others thought-about essential to sustaining current assist.
The broader get together programme lined all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, with governors and marketing campaign officers assigned accountability for rallies the president wouldn’t attend personally.
The association appeared designed to permit Tinubu to think about presidential obligations whereas taking part instantly in chosen high-priority political engagements.
However, the altering marketing campaign surroundings presents a distinct problem.
A presidential election just isn’t decided solely by the visibility of political constructions. The private presence of a candidate can affect marketing campaign enthusiasm, entice undecided supporters and exhibit the significance connected to specific communities.
The argument for increasing Tinubu’s North-west marketing campaign rests on the political worth of direct engagement.
Rather than limiting himself to Kaduna, Sokoto and Kano, the president may take into account further appearances in Katsina, Kebbi, Jigawa and Zamfara.
Such a choice would give him the chance to handle safety issues, have interaction native political leaders, defend his financial insurance policies, and attraction instantly to voters in all seven states.
The chance of extending the marketing campaign to all 36 states would signify a extra bold enterprise.
Yet with solely a restricted interval remaining earlier than the election, such a plan would require important scheduling changes and larger delegation of official obligations.
For now, the unique itinerary stays the publicly established programme. The chance of additional enlargement ought to be understood as an rising political calculation slightly than an formally introduced revision.
The Opposition’s Opportunity, and Its Own Difficulties
Atiku’s rising visibility in northern Nigeria has given ADC a possibility to current itself because the principal different to the incumbent administration.
The former vp’s longstanding relationships within the area, his familiarity with northern political constructions, and his means to marketing campaign on the price of dwelling present identifiable benefits.
Yet, he faces appreciable obstacles. APC controls all seven North-west governorships and has attracted a number of distinguished politicians from opposition events.
Atiku should additionally cope with Kwankwaso’s affect in Kano and the broader problem posed by the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket.
A divided opposition may allow Tinubu to safe victories with pluralities considerably under an outright majority of votes solid. There can also be the query of whether or not Atiku can enhance his efficiency exterior the north.
In 2023, Tinubu benefited from a broad coalition that mixed northern assist with substantial votes within the South-west and different components of the nation.
Atiku can not assume {that a} stronger northern displaying alone could be ample to overturn the nationwide end result. He would want to forestall additional losses within the south whereas increasing his electoral attain within the North-central and different aggressive areas.
For Tinubu, the equal problem is to protect sufficient of his northern coalition whereas enhancing his efficiency in states he misplaced.
The actual contest just isn’t merely between a northern candidate and a southern incumbent, however between competing nationwide coalitions with completely different strengths and vulnerabilities.
2027: Different Election, Different Reality
The best hazard for APC could be to assume that the political situations that produced Tinubu’s 2023 victory stay considerably unchanged. They don’t.
The president now has the benefit of incumbency, wider political alliances, and the assist of governors who had been beforehand exterior the ruling get together.
But he additionally carries the political penalties of three years of financial reforms, persistent insecurity, and public expectations that haven’t at all times been met.
Atiku has the benefit of campaigning towards the federal government’s file, however should overcome the organisational superiority of APC and the fragmentation of the opposition vote.
The North-west sits on the intersection of those competing realities. Its voters helped ship the presidency to Tinubu in 2023, however the identical area offered Atiku with victories in 4 states.
Its governors now belong to APC, however their political affiliations can not decide how residents will vote. Its communities have skilled the pressures of financial hardship and insecurity, but their political responses won’t essentially be uniform.
The rising lesson, for Tinubu, is that retaining the north might require greater than the endorsements of influential politicians and the mobilisation of state governors.
It might require sustained private engagement, convincing explanations of coverage decisions, and credible proof that the federal government understands the difficulties going through extraordinary residents.
Whether that leads to visits to all seven North-west states or a wider tour of the federation stays to be seen. What is more and more evident is that the unique 12-state calculation can’t be handled as politically untouchable.
Tinubu’s 2023 electoral coalition was constructed considerably on northern votes. The central problem of 2027 is whether or not he can persuade sufficient of these voters to renew their confidence in his management.
To that extent, if the political ambiance within the area turns into sufficiently aggressive, the president might uncover that the journey again to Aso Rock requires significantly extra stops than he initially deliberate.
