The altcoin market cap has dropped from $1.85 trillion to $1.05 trillion at press time in simply a month. At the identical time, the Altcoin Season Index was buying and selling at 44, indicating that the market was nonetheless in a Bitcoin [BTC] season.
The chart under clearly exhibits that the index has repeatedly tried to maneuver greater however has struggled to maintain readings above 75.
As anticipated, this has prompted a query: Is altcoin season now off the radar in 2026?
Bitcoin outpaces altcoins
Alphractal evaluation exhibits that round August to October 2026, each Bitcoin’s 60-day return and the median altcoin’s return climbed to roughly +50-60%, with altcoins shifting in sync. But, by November, each traces have dropped again to roughly 0%, and the median altcoin sits barely under Bitcoin.
Simultaneously, the median altcoin vs. Bitcoin chart exhibits the hole immediately, because it was standing at -5.91%. The inexperienced spike in October (about +25%) has totally reversed into crimson, that means the median altcoin now trails Bitcoin by about 6% in over sixty days.
This exhibits how the sample matches earlier cycles, the place altcoin outperformance got here briefly bursts that pale shortly. Currently, altcoins are weaker than Bitcoin however not in deep capitulation.
Remarking on the identical, João Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, argued,
Altcoins sign Bitcoin tops with a excessive diploma of chance!
Echoing comparable sentiments, Benjamin Cowen, founder & CEO, ITC, added that “Q4 has arrived,” however the value chart he connected suggests a broad crimson day, with Bitcoin at about $74,875 (-1.19%), however altcoins are falling tougher.
Adding extra to the continued concern, Wealthmanager also called the present market state of affairs a “full capitulation” section with about $380 billion extra promoting than shopping for, claiming it’s seven occasions worse than 2022’s backside.
Is altcoin season really shedding its steam?
At the identical time, Bitcoin dominance is secure above 60% at press time, and altcoins not gaining share matches the weak Altcoin Season Index very properly.
However, ETF flows on sixth November present web outflows nearly in every single place. Starting with BTC ETFs, which misplaced $1.28 billion, and Ethereum [ETH] ETFs, which recorded $365.28 million, the second-largest outflow.
Lastly, Hyperliquid [HYPE] was hit by $15.62 million in outflows, Solana [SOL] recorded $26.25 million, Avalanche [AVAX] recorded $1.27 million, Chainlink [LINK] noticed $1.06 million, and XRP, Litecoin [LTC], and Binance [BNB] every recorded outflows beneath $1 million.
It was solely Hedera [HBAR] that recorded an influx of $3.01 million. In different phrases, institutional cash is leaving each Bitcoin and altcoins, not rotating from one to the opposite. This adopted a recent report by AMBCrypto, which already indicated on the finish of October that altcoin hypothesis has slowed down.
Final Summary
- Though the Altcoin season index repeatedly tried to maneuver greater, it struggled to maintain above 75.
- Altcoin ETFs, together with Bitcoin ETFs, noticed outflows on the sixth of November.
